Which Golden Visa Programs Are Most at Risk of Closing? (2026)
This ranked view includes every programme in the golden-visa registry, including realized closures. Each score, reason, source and date is projected from its programme record.
Closure risk at a glance
- Registry rows
- 33
- Realized leader
- Ireland Immigrant Investor Programme (IIP), Netherlands foreign-investor residence permit, Spain Golden Visa (CLOSED), UK Tier 1 (Investor) · 10/10
- Current leader
- Vanuatu CBI · 8/10
- Realized changes
- 15
Latest row check
Open the full rankingQuick answer
Ireland Immigrant Investor Programme (IIP), Netherlands foreign-investor residence permit, Spain Golden Visa (CLOSED), UK Tier 1 (Investor) is the realized closure row at 10/10. Among current programmes, Vanuatu CBI has the highest current, non-closed risk at 8/10. Read each programme's reasoning and realized rule changes; the score alone is not a categorical risk class.
How the closure-risk score is constructed
The scores are registry-supplied qualitative 0–10 assessments grounded only in each programme's accompanying closure-risk note. The registry records no shared numeric formula or weights, and this page does not infer one. A higher stored number indicates greater closure risk; this page orders programmes by that score and shows each programme's own verification date. It does not infer a categorical risk class or treat a rule change as evidence unless an in-effect investment entry for the same programme code exists in the rule-change registry.
Next step
Policy durability is one dimension. Compare the qualifying amounts and full route notes for current programmes.
Closure-risk ranking across all programmes
“No realized rule change recorded” means no matching in-effect investment entry is present in the shared rule-change registry; it does not make a claim about changes that registry does not record.
- 1.
Ireland Immigrant Investor Programme (IIP)
Already closed.
Verified 2026-08-16Source: gov.ieNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
10/10
- 2.
Netherlands foreign-investor residence permit
Already closed.
Verified 2026-08-16Source: fragomen.comNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
10/10
- 3.
Closure risk
10/10
- 4.
UK Tier 1 (Investor)
Already closed.
Verified 2026-08-16Source: gov.ukNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
10/10
- 5.
Vanuatu CBI
Schengen visa-waiver already suspended (2022). Programme has faced repeated temporary suspensions and DD concerns. Banking-relationship fragility is a real operational risk.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: vancitizenship.gov.vuClosure risk
8/10
- 6.
Dominica CBI
EU Commission has flagged Caribbean CBI programmes as grounds for visa-waiver suspension. Post-2024 OECS MoA tightened compliance but risk remains elevated.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: cbiu.gov.dmClosure risk
7/10
- 7.
Antigua CBI
Caribbean CBI EU-scrutiny risk. Antigua's 5-day presence requirement is perceived as slightly more substance-oriented than pure paper-citizenship programmes.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: cip.gov.agNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
6/10
- 8.
Cyprus PR
Parents/in-laws already excluded (2023). Citizenship fast-track removed (2026). Programme likely to tighten further with Schengen accession.
Verified 2026-08-19Source: moi.gov.cyClosure risk
6/10
- 9.
Grenada CBI
Caribbean CBI EU-scrutiny risk. US E-2 treaty status may also face diplomatic pressure.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: imagrenada.gdClosure risk
6/10
- 10.
N. Macedonia CBI
EU accession process creates pressure to tighten or close CBI programmes. North Macedonia's programme could be discontinued as part of EU pre-accession alignment.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: mvr.gov.mkNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
6/10
- 11.
St Kitts CBI
Caribbean CBI programmes face intense EU scrutiny. St Kitts tightened DD in 2024-2025, adopted biometric collection from 14 April 2026. EU Commission has flagged CBI programmes as potential grounds for visa-waiver suspension — changes to Schengen access are a real downside risk.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: ciu.gov.knClosure risk
6/10
- 12.
St Lucia CBI
Caribbean CBI EU-scrutiny risk. Saint Lucia's stricter DD posture marginally reduces its individual closure risk vs regional peers.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: cipsaintlucia.comClosure risk
6/10
- 13.
Hungary GIVP
Hungary-EU rule-of-law tensions; programme could face EU scrutiny. 2025 reform removed the direct-RE route — further narrowing possible.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: oif.gov.huClosure risk
5/10
- 14.
Nauru CBI
Newest CBI programme — high political risk until track record established. Nauru climate-resilience angle gives legitimacy shield but untested.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: ecrcp.gov.nrClosure risk
5/10
- 15.
São Tomé CBI
New programme — political risk until track record establishes. Small country with limited administrative capacity.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: gov.stNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
5/10
- 16.
Egypt CBI
Programme launched 2019 and remains stable. Egypt doesn't face the same EU-scrutiny as Caribbean CBI.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: egypt.gov.egNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
4/10
- 17.
Latvia Golden Visa
Latvia tightened due-diligence after 2022 Russian-applicant scrutiny. Residency permits issued before political shifts remain valid.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: likumi.lvNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
4/10
- 18.
Malta MPRP
Malta EU-scrutinised; IIP (passport sales) already closed in 2025. MPRP reformed rather than terminated but future tightening possible.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: residencymalta.gov.mtClosure risk
4/10
- 19.
Portugal Golden Visa
Real estate removed 2023; citizenship timeline lengthened (Lei Orgânica 1/2026). Programme continues but politically less durable than a decade ago.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: aima.gov.ptClosure risk
4/10
- 20.
Turkey CBI
Turkey periodically adjusts the real-estate threshold (raised from $250K to $400K in 2022). Further rises possible as programme matures. EU/Schengen visa-waiver tensions periodically threaten programme perception.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: invest.gov.trNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
4/10
- 21.
Greece Golden Visa
Reformed in 2024 rather than closed; unlikely to close outright but thresholds may rise further.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: migration.gov.grClosure risk
3/10
- 22.
NZ Active Investor Plus
Programme reformed and relaxed in 2025 — direction is favourable, not restrictive. Future changes unlikely in short term.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: immigration.govt.nzClosure risk
3/10
- 23.
Panama Qualified Investor
Open with no announced change. Legislated on three times in five years and the real-estate threshold has moved in both directions (B/.500,000 in 2022, back to B/.300,000 in 2024), so the figure is live policy rather than settled — but every amendment has extended the programme, and the 2024 decree added investor protections for pre-construction buyers.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: gacetaoficial.gob.paClosure risk
3/10
- 24.
Switzerland Lump-Sum
Five cantons abolished lump-sum taxation (ZH, BS, BL, SH, AR); other cantons voted to retain it. Programme is canton-specific.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: efd.admin.chNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
3/10
- 25.
Thailand LTR
Programme launched 2022, refined 2025. Thailand is actively promoting the LTR to attract HNW and remote talent. Programme stability is high in the short-to-medium term.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: ltr.boi.go.thNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
3/10
- 26.
USA EB-5
EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act reauthorised the programme; USCIS states immigrant visas are authorised under the Regional Center Program through 30 September 2027, so that route (not the standalone route) carries a real statutory horizon. Set-aside categories stable. Separately, the investment amounts adjust for CPI-U every five years, first effective for petitions filed on or after 1 January 2027.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: uscis.govNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
3/10
- 27.
Australia NIV
Newly restructured in Dec 2024; stable for the medium term.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: immi.homeaffairs.gov.auClosure risk
2/10
- 28.
Italy Investor Visa
Launched 2017, stable. Flat-tax regime amount increased €100K→€200K for new electants from Aug 2024 — further changes possible.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: investorvisa.mise.gov.itNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
2/10
- 29.
Luxembourg Investor
Stable programme within a financially sophisticated jurisdiction. Unlikely to change materially in the short term.
Verified 2026-08-09Source: guichet.public.luNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
2/10
- 30.
Mauritius Residence
Very stable — Mauritius is a well-regarded financial centre with long-standing residence permits. Programme has expanded rather than contracted over time.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: residency.muNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
2/10
- 31.
Monaco Residence
Monaco's residence framework is politically stable; programme has existed since the 1950s. The €500K deposit minimum is set by banks (not the state) and has gradually risen.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: monservicepublic.gouv.mcNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
2/10
- 32.
Singapore GIP
Singapore has progressively raised GIP thresholds (doubled from SGD 10M for fund route in recent years). Further increases possible.
Verified 2026-07-16Source: edb.gov.sgNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
2/10
- 33.
UAE Golden Visa
Active government priority; thresholds have eased rather than tightened over time.
Verified 2026-08-07Source: icp.gov.aeNo realized rule change recorded.
Closure risk
2/10
Next step
Continue with the registry-backed years, pathway kinds and conditions for every current programme.